Nigeria Missing As IMF Lists Benin Republic, Rwanda, Others Among Africa’s Fastest-Growing Economies

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest economic outlook for Africa, and once again, Nigeria — Africa’s largest economy by GDP — has failed to make the list of the continent’s fastest-growing economies. The development has triggered a new wave of debate among economic analysts, citizens, and policymakers who worry that Nigeria’s growth potential is being steadily eroded by poor governance, policy inconsistency, and inflationary pressure.

IMF’s Growth Forecast

According to the IMF report cited by Sahara Reporters, the countries expected to record the highest economic growth in 2025 include Benin Republic, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Senegal, and Tanzania. These nations are projected to achieve growth rates ranging from 6.5% to 8.2%, driven largely by diversification, stable macroeconomic policies, and massive investments in manufacturing and services.

In stark contrast, Nigeria’s growth projection stands at just around 3.0%, a figure the IMF describes as “insufficient to significantly reduce poverty or improve living standards.” The Fund attributes the country’s sluggish performance to structural weaknesses — particularly in the energy sector, revenue collection, and public spending efficiency.

The report notes that while oil prices remain relatively high, Nigeria has failed to fully benefit due to declining crude output, rising production costs, and persistent pipeline vandalism. Non-oil growth has also slowed, as small businesses grapple with unstable exchange rates, high borrowing costs, and inflation that has remained above 25% for months.

What the IMF Said

In its October 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa Economic Outlook, the IMF highlighted that the region’s economic recovery is uneven, with smaller, reform-driven economies outpacing larger but more policy-constrained nations like Nigeria and South Africa.

“Countries such as Benin, Rwanda, and Côte d’Ivoire have demonstrated resilience through structural reforms, improved fiscal transparency, and targeted investments in digital infrastructure and manufacturing,” the report stated.

Meanwhile, “Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability remains fragile due to exchange-rate misalignment, fiscal pressures, and underinvestment in critical infrastructure.”

Nigeria’s Economic Challenges

Despite its vast natural and human resources, Nigeria continues to struggle with economic headwinds that limit growth and worsen inequality. The removal of fuel subsidies in 2024 and the subsequent liberalization of the naira were initially welcomed by investors, but poor policy coordination and weak implementation have dampened expected gains.

The naira has remained under intense pressure, trading at around ₦1,470 to ₦1,500 per U.S. dollar, while inflation — especially in food prices — continues to rise. According to recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the food inflation rate hit 34.6%, making it increasingly difficult for households to meet basic needs.

Small and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs), which account for over 80% of jobs in Nigeria, have been particularly affected. Many business owners report sharp increases in the cost of raw materials and transportation, with some shutting down due to declining consumer demand.

Comparing Nigeria With Its Neighbors

What makes the IMF’s ranking more worrying is the inclusion of smaller economies like Benin Republic, Nigeria’s immediate neighbor, which has maintained consistent growth above 6%. Analysts attribute Benin’s success to its stable fiscal policy, investment in logistics infrastructure, and strong trade ties with the West African region.

Similarly, Rwanda, despite limited natural resources, continues to outperform many oil-producing countries through disciplined governance, technology investment, and aggressive ease-of-doing-business reforms.

“Nigeria’s underperformance is not about size; it’s about policy direction,” said Dr. Henry Adedeji, an economist based in Lagos. “Benin and Rwanda have shown that with the right fiscal discipline and political will, economic progress is possible even without oil.”

Reactions From Nigerian Stakeholders

The IMF report has stirred reactions within Nigeria’s policy and business circles.
Some government officials downplayed the exclusion, arguing that the Fund’s analysis did not fully capture Nigeria’s ongoing reforms and recovery plans.

The Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, in a brief statement, maintained that the administration of President Bola Tinubu is focused on building a diversified and resilient economy through its “Renewed Hope” agenda.

“We are aware of the challenges, but reforms take time to yield results,” Edun said. “The IMF projections are short-term. Nigeria’s long-term fundamentals remain strong.”

However, opposition politicians and civil society groups disagree, accusing the government of mishandling the economy. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) described the IMF ranking as “an embarrassing reflection of policy failure.”

“The administration has not addressed the cost-of-living crisis, nor has it provided a clear framework for industrial revival. That is why smaller countries are now outperforming us,” the PDP said in a statement.

Economic Experts Weigh In

Economic experts say that Nigeria’s exclusion from the list should serve as a wake-up call.
Professor Uche Ekeoma, a development economist at the University of Abuja, stated that the IMF’s findings confirm that Nigeria’s economy is “stuck in low-growth equilibrium.”

“The fundamentals — power supply, transportation, and human capital — remain weak,” he explained. “Until we fix those, no amount of reform slogans will change our reality.”

Others believe the government can still turn things around by aggressively implementing industrial policies, improving tax administration, and investing in renewable energy.

“The window for reform is closing fast,” said Ngozi Obi, a Lagos-based financial consultant. “If Nigeria does not act now, it risks losing its leadership role in West Africa’s economy.”

Conclusion

Nigeria’s absence from the IMF’s list of Africa’s fastest-growing economies is more than a symbolic loss — it’s a warning sign. It highlights the growing gap between potential and performance, between policy promises and economic reality.

As other African countries rise through innovation, governance reform, and accountability, Nigeria must confront its long-standing structural issues with sincerity and urgency. Whether the Tinubu administration can reverse the trend before the next IMF report remains to be seen — but for millions of Nigerians, the cost of continued stagnation is already painfully clear.